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A Data Mash-Up: University System of Georgia vs. Georgia Department of Corrections. It’s not pretty.

Spend much time sifting through reams of data about Georgia counties and sooner or later you’ll stumble across an interesting factoid you weren’t even looking for.

Here’s one example: Georgia convicts more people of crimes than it sends to college.

Maybe that’s not surprising, but it still seems a little troubling, and it may be one reasonable indicator of the overall social health of a community.

I was pursuing two different lines of research – one with University System data and the other with Department of Corrections statistics – when I noticed the contrast.

Ten years ago, in 2006, 36,202 Georgians matriculated as freshmen at one of the state’s colleges or universities, according to University System of Georgia data.  That same year, a total of 66,255 were either convicted or pled guilty to crimes, according to Georgia Department of Corrections (DOC) data.  This group included 44,762 who were placed on probation and another 21,493 who were sent to prison.  That works out to 1.83 convicts for every college freshman.

Ten years later, by 2015, that ratio had improved.  The number of college freshmen was up to 42,908 and the number of total convicts was down to 59,111, giving us about 1.38 new people entering the corrections system for every new college freshman.

That improvement was not, however, spread evenly across the state.  In 2006, all five of our Trouble in God’s Country regions – Metro Atlanta, Coastal Georgia, Middle Georgia, North Georgia and South Georgia – were cranking out more convicts than college freshmen.

By 2015, Metro Atlanta had turned that around and was producing a few more college freshmen than total convicts – 22,903 college freshmen to 22,042 convicts.  The other four regions still had negative college freshmen-to-convict ratios.

The key driver in that change has been a gradual but steady shift in where Georgia’s college freshmen come from.

What might be called a “regional share of criminals” went largely unchanged between 2006 and 2015.  Every single region finished the 10-year stretch within a single percentage point of where it started.  Metro Atlanta’s share of new convicts was exactly the same in 2015 as it had been in 2006 – 37.3 percent.  Coastal Georgia and Middle Georgia saw their shares drop by a fraction of a point, while North Georgia and South Georgia each eked up by less than a point.

But the distribution of college freshmen did change significantly.  In 2006, 46.2 percent of Georgians enrolling at the state’s colleges and universities came from our 12-county Metro Atlanta region; by 2015, that number was up to 53.4 percent.  All four other regions saw their share of college freshmen decline at least slightly, with our 56-county South Georgia region taking the biggest hit; it was down from 14.1 percent of college freshmen in 2006 to 10.6 percent in 2015.

I mentioned above that the state’s convict population falls into two categories – those who are placed on probation (presumably for lesser crimes and/or plea deals) and those who actually go to prison.  Because that overall convict population is larger than the number of college freshmen we produce each year, it follows that most individual counties would fit that profile, and that is indeed the case.  Of Georgia’s 159 counties, 141 produced more criminals than college freshmen in 2015.

Of those, 22 actually sent more people to prison than to college.  That list of counties earning that dubious distinction is as follows:

 

Region County 2015 College Freshmen 2015 Prison Admits
Middle Baldwin 83 85
South Ben Hill 51 94
North Chattooga 47 118
South Clay 5 9
North Elbert 45 59
North Floyd 334 420
North Franklin 40 61
North Greene 40 46
North Hart 44 70
Middle Jones 69 82
South Lanier 5 16
North Madison 59 63
Middle Meriwether 65 72
Middle Richmond 531 558
Middle Spalding 185 212
North Stephens 50 71
North Taliaferro 3 6
North Towns 16 18
Middle Treutlen 26 27
Middle Troup 206 267
Middle Twiggs 19 20
North Walker 134 173

At the other end of the spectrum, 16 counties produced more college freshmen than total convicts (prison admits and probationers combined).  Here’s that honor roll:

Region County 2015 College Freshmen 2015 Criminal Convicts (Prison Admits & Probationers)
Coastal Bryan 239 96
Coastal Camden 241 188
Atlanta Cherokee 1,117 920
Middle Columbia 764 588
Coastal Effingham 306 229
Atlanta Fayette 784 471
Atlanta Forsyth 1,268 548
Middle Glascock 12 8
Atlanta Gwinnett 5,664 3679
Atlanta Henry 1,362 935
South Lee 216 111
North Oconee 305 65
Atlanta Paulding 587 346
Middle Pike 106 20
South Schley 38 25
South Turner 45 40

Probably the strongest performer in this category is fast-growing Forsyth County, which also posts some of the state’s strongest economic, educational and public health numbers.  Even a decade ago, in 2006, Forsyth County was already sending more people to college than into the criminal justice system, and it’s widened the gap considerably in the 10 years since then, as this chart shows.

Forsyth County Chart

In 2006, Forsyth sent 150 more people to college than into the criminal justice system; by 2015, it was sending more than two people to college for each one it convicted of a crime.

Just about the entire Metro Atlanta region performed well in this area, however.  Of the 12 counties in our Metro Atlanta region, all but one saw its ratio of college freshmen-to-convicts improve over the 10-year period.  The exception was Fayette County.  It still finished on the honor roll (above) of counties sending more people to college than into the criminal justice system, but nonetheless finished the 10-year period with slightly poorer numbers.

Copyright (c) 2016 Trouble in God’s Country

 

 

 

Georgia blacks make strong gains in premature death rates; rural white females losing ground

As we’ve noted in various previous posts, Georgia’s premature death rate (known formally as Years of Potential Life Lost before age 75, or YPLL 75) has been improving fairly steadily over the 20 years that the state’s Department of Public Health (DPH) has been compiling pertinent data.[1]  Between 1994 and 2013, the state’s YPLL 75 rate improved from 9,195.6 to 7,104.7, a gain of 19.4 percent.  The national median, as reported the Robert W. Johnson Foundation in its latest County Health Rankings, was 7,681, so Georgia is doing a little better than the nation as a whole.

But, as we’ve noted in past posts, Georgia’s improvement has been far from even; we’ve focused in particular on regional differences and the dramatic gap in YPLL 75 performance between Metro Atlanta and the rest of the state.  Until now, however, we haven’t looked at racial or gender comparisons, and that produces a couple of interesting headlines.  One is that the vast majority of gains in premature death rates between 1994 and 2013 have been made in the black population.  The other is that rural white females are losing ground.  Read more

Is Rural Georgia Dying? Literally?

A basic premise of Trouble in God’s Country is that rural Georgia is dying.  Truth is, I’ve meant that figuratively rather than literally – a reference to local economies gutted by globalization and other factors, failing schools and small hospitals in danger of closing, among other things.

Recently, however, I read an article that made passing reference to the growing number of rural counties across the country where deaths outnumber births.  I wondered if that might be the case in Georgia.

A quick dive back into the Georgia Department of Public Health’s (DPH) OASIS system produced some pretty startling results. Read more

AJC: Rural hospitals bailing on babies

The AJC is up today with an excellent and hugely important story by Lynne Anderson about the state’s rural hospitals bailing out of baby business.  This is the bow wave in the slow-motion disaster that is rural healthcare in Georgia in the 21st century.

One of several money grafs:

Read more

A Tale of Two Regions

Our recent research on premature death rates in Georgia produced a couple of unexpected revelations, and we decided to loop back for a closer look.  The revelations involve two of our five regions, North Georgia and Middle Georgia.  (For a quick primer on that earlier work, click here, here and here.)

For our purposes, North Georgia is made up of 41 counties that lie outside Metro Atlanta and above the gnat line (see map below and click on the map for a larger view).  As a region, it has clearly benefited from its proximity to Metro Atlanta; in recent decades, it has posted far and away the second-strongest population and economic growth in the state, outpacing not only Middle and South Georgia, but the Coastal region as well. Read more

Peachcare and Young YPLL

In a recent post, we began to explore premature death rates within Georgia’s working-age population, men and women between the ages of 18 and 65.  We were initially surprised to learn that improvements in the so-called YPLL 75 Rate for this segment of the state’s population lagged gains for the population as a whole.  That led us to drill down a bit and look at premature death trends in the younger and older age groups – specifically, Georgians under the age of 18 and between the ages of 65 and 75.

Both groups saw significantly stronger gains in their premature death rates than did working-age Georgians.  The question was why; what factors were driving premature death gains for younger and older Georgians that were somehow not impacting working-age Georgians?

Read more

Forsyth County moves to the top of the 2015 TIGC Power Ratings

With the publication Wednesday of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s 2015 County Health Rankings, we can indeed report that, as expected, Forsyth County has slipped past perennial leader Oconee County and claimed 1st place in the 2015 Trouble in God’s Country Power Ratings. Read more

A new Power Ratings champ?

Every year during the old Partner Up! for Public Health campaign, we built a major part of the annual publicity effort around what we called Power Ratings that paired county health rankings produced by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation with county economic rankings generated each year by the Georgia Department of Community Affairs (DCA).

Throughout the 2010-through-2014 period for which we compiled rankings, Oconee County reigned supreme.  For each of those five years, it was No. 1 in DCA’s economic rankings,[1] which are generated by a formula that incorporates local unemployment and poverty rates along with local per capita income.   And, it ranked either 2nd or 3rd in RWJ’s annual health outcomes rankings, which are based on a formula that includes premature death rates, the percent of the population reporting being in poor or fair health, number of days worked missed for reasons of physical or mental health, and low birthweight. Read more

Working Age YPLL

Throughout the Partner Up! for Public Health campaign, when we were conducting the research and analysis that enabled us to “connect the dots” between community health and economic vitality at a local level, one of the key health metrics we relied upon was premature death – better known as Years of Potential Life Lost before Age 75, or YPLL 75.  YPLL 75 is generally regarded as the Dow Jones Industrial Average of a community’s (or a state’s, or a nation’s) health.  If you want to look at one metric and get a sense of a community’s health, look at its YPLL 75 rate.

YPLL 75 is part of the formula the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation uses to calculate a county’s overall Health Outcomes Rankings, and it’s easy enough to pull from the State of Georgia’s excellent online public health data system, OASIS (for Online Analytical Statistical Information System).  So it was a natural data point to work with. Read more

Thanks, New York Times!

Over the past several weeks, I’ve been working on a presentation I’ll be delivering next month to the Kentucky Public Health Association.  I was invited to speak to the group after one of its leaders saw me deliver an early version of the “Connecting the Dots: Community Health & Economic Vitality” presentation we developed as part of the Partner Up! for Public Health campaign that officially concluded last year.

It was literally yesterday afternoon that I finished double-checking data and proofing maps I’ll be using to demonstrate the overlap between good health and strong economies in the Bluegrass State – and this morning The New York Times gave me a major assist by publishing a front-page story built around a first-ever look at county-level smoking rates.

Read more

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