A question for Georgia’s Democratic Party leaders

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I have a question for the Democratic Party of Georgia.

Why should any prospective donor, large or small, contribute a single dime – nay, even a penny – to this party?

I write this, by the way, as somebody who has not voted for a Republican since the late Mike Egan was my state senator back in the 1990s. 

I also write this is as someone who believes the blood of Apalachee High School and the pregnant women who are dying in Georgia from lack of medical care is on the hands of Governor Brian Kemp and every Republican in the Georgia General Assembly.

But I also think that blood is on the hands of a Democratic Party that lacks the basic competence to turn the GOP’s abhorrent gun and abortion policies into winning political issues – and, even more fundamentally, to get their voters to the polls over those and other issues.

There can be no greater political irony than this: The state that produced Martin Luther King, Jr., Andy Young, John Lewis and countless other important civil rights leaders still cannot get Blacks to vote in elections that should have been imminently winnable for the Democrats.

A couple of illustrations:

First, Georgia has 66 counties whose populations are at least 70% White.  Those counties are for the most part sparsely populated rural counties, but also include substantial fast-growing counties like Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall, Coweta and Carroll counties, among others.  All these overwhelmingly White counties are home to 2.3 million registered voters, and 69.0% of them turned out in last month’s presidential election.  Former president and now president-elect Donald J. Trump got 73.6% of those votes.

Only two counties – Clayton and Dougherty – are at least 70% Black.  Not surprisingly, they went 80% for Vice President Kamala Harris.  But their combined voter turnout rate averaged only 51.6% — a full 17.4 points lower than the turnout in the overwhelmingly White counties.  If Clayton and Dougherty had voted at the same 69% rate averaged by the largely White counties, they would have generated nearly 50,000 more votes – and probably 40,000 of those would have gone to Harris.

Another example.  Compare Georgia’s regional urban counties with their white flight neighbors.  This table tells the story.  In each of the groupings, the county listed first is the major urban (and more heavily Black county): Chatham (Savannah), Dougherty (Albany), Clarke (Athens), and Richmond (Augusta).  The county or counties shown immediately below them are neighboring counties that have emerged, to varying degrees, as “white flight” counties.

County% White Pop% Black PopVoter Turnout Rate% Trump% Harris
Chatham52.7%40.9%59.6%40.3%58.1%
Bryan & Effingham Combined78.3%16.2%65.7%71.4%27.7%
      
Dougherty24.8%72.0%49.0%29.0%72.0%
Lee69.0%26.1%69.2%71.1%27.8%
      
Clarke65.4%27.4%61.9%30.0%67.9%
Oconee & Oglethorpe Combined85.4%  7.9%78.7%67.5%24%
      
Richmond35.4%59.3%54.6%31.4%67.1%
Columbia69.6%21.3%67.8%62.0%35.6%

The most stunning example is the last one.  Richmond County, home to Augusta, is one of the largest urban counties outside Metro Atlanta.  Columbia County began developing decades ago as Richmond’s white flight county, but it still has about 40,000 fewer residents and roughly 27,000 fewer registered voters.  Despite that, Columbia County actually sent more voters to the polls than Richmond: 86,605 versus 84,394.  And, of course, 70%-White Columbia went heavily for Trump.

That’s the story of this election.  For all the talk about the Democrats’ vaunted ground game and GOTV machinery, Black voters sat home and passed on a chance to put a woman of color in the Oval Office. 

Which brings me to a brief digression and back to my question about why anybody would donate money to the Democratic Party.  In my younger days as a public relations manager, I did a good bit of work in the field of financial and investor communication.  One thing you learn in that line of work is that prospective investors demand confidence in a company’s management.  They may love a product, but if they don’t think the company’s management knows what it’s doing, they’ll put their money somewhere else.

Politics isn’t that different.  Voters may feel good about certain candidates or policies, but woe be unto a party’s leaders if the voters doubt their ability to win elections.  That, methinks, is where the Democratic Party of Georgia finds itself today.  And woe be unto them.

Comments

  1. Don Yates

    Charles, as always I enjoy your well researched and insightful comments. My thoughts are that for all the angst and browbeating we see on TV (CNN), listen to on radio (NPR) and read in the newspapers (NY Times) the Election of Trump can be attributed to:

    1) Biden should have announced after the 2022 mid-term election that he would not seek a second term, he did not

    2) The Democratic Party selected Harris, a black female of south-Asian decent after Biden dropped out with only 107 days to campaign

    3) In the last month of the campaign the Trump campaign spent a quarter $Billion dollars of transgender ads and illegal immigrant crime

    4) Harris never leaned into the cruel inaccurate Trump ads or countered them in any meaningful way

    5) Somewhat humorously, voters thought they were choosing lower egg prices however they were choosing fascism.

  2. Jim Jones & The Koolaid

    I think the GA Democrats did just fine. Harris received 70K MORE votes than Biden did in ’20. The problem is that Trump received 200K MORE votes than ’20. The rural white vote increased as much as 7% and they voted for Trump. According to https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout 80.8%(!) of registered white voters voted. That’s astronomically high voter turnout. What’s interesting is that white voters were only 54.76% of voters this year whereas they were 61% in ’20. Black voter turnout was 65.6% of registered black voters this year (unfortunately I have not located what turnout was for ’20).

    For some reason a whole bunch of white voters who did NOT vote in ’20 decided to vote for Trump this year.

    Now, we can be pretty certain that the vast majority of those voters are NOT college educated. Trump did not offer them any rational reason to vote for Trump. All Trump accomplished in his first term is a tax cut from himself and to pack the courts with ultra-conservative judges. (Cannon saved the Trump candidacy btw IMO, if any other judge in that circuit had received the case it would have been tried long before the election). Trump did not offer them any real substantive reason to vote for him this year.

    So the question is why are white voters voting for Trump? It’s NOT a rational reason. IMO it’s fear of PAYBACK. For close to 200 years white people exploited non-white people in this country and I think these white voters are convinced that if you have non-white leadership then there will be reverse discrimination against white people. Therefore these voters are convinced they are better off with white Rs who aren’t doing anything for them at best. You are fully aware that it’s just about impossible to have a rational conversation about politics with Trump supporters. At best they’ll just ignore you, at worst you’ll be assaulted for NOT agreeing with them.

    Nationally the Democratic party did NOT do well. In the vast majority of other states voter turnout for Ds was down. But in Georgia I’m pretty certain if you dig through the numbers Harris received the most state wide votes ever for a Democrat in the past 50 years of elections. And that’s not a small feat.

    1. Jim Jones & The Koolaid

      So I dug into the numbers some more, according to https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout the total number of white voters for ’24 is 2,899,621 million. The total number of black voters for ’24 is 1,356,387.

      According to wikipedia, 61% of voters in ’20 are white – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Georgia (The GA Election Data Hub does NOT have 2020 election result data). The total number of voters in ’20 was 4,999,960. 61% of that is 3,049,976 voters. So 150K FEWER white voters voted in ’24. The black vote in ’20 was 29% which is 1,449,989 votes. So the black vote was down almost 95K as well. So the turnout for BOTH white and black voters was down.

      However https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout has other race voters being 486,027 and the 2020 Wikipedia data has other race voters being 2% which is 100K voters for ’20. The SOS.GA.GOV page has Latino voters being 179,781 for ’24 while the wiki page has Latino voters at 7% which is 349,998 for ’20. The SOS.GA.GOV page has Asian voters being 139,919 while the wiki page for ’20 has Asian voters as 1% of voters which is 50K for ’20. The SOS.GA.GOV page has native American vote total at 29,545 while the wiki page has NO data for native American voters.

      CNN exit poll in ’20 had white voters supporting Trump by 69% – https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/georgia/5, while CNN this year – https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/georgia/general/president/0 – had white voters supporting Trump by 71%.

  3. Pam Davis

    Spot on Charles. This is a serious discussion in Oconee county.

  4. Jim Baird

    Thanks, Charlie.

    As a Macon native I have seen, albeit from some distance, a white diaspora that took six or seven decades.

  5. Emory Johnson

    I only wish during those high school civics and government classes or, even those woke, university classes in the late 60’s that I had been more diligent in my studies
    , then possibly I would understand this dilemma more clearly. While I’ve reached the age of remembering those days and the information presented, I certainly remember the words of a knowledgeable grandfather with a seventh grade education, “you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink.” Damn bunch of horses will be enduring their lack of voting, hopefully they will not waste our time complaining about the outcome.

  6. Harold Thompson

    I don’t think GA is any different from the rest of the country in what factors influenced the Presidential outcome. It’s the price of eggs and mass deportations.

    Reproductive rights won in states that had it as a ballot initiative, but those same states largely picked Trump over Harris. Arizona even elected a Dem Senator, approved a RR proposition and still picked Trump for President.

    I alos think Biden’s low approval ratings dug a too big of a hole for Harris to climb out of in a 100 day campaign. Her proposals lacked the public vetting that comes from the long primary process. How low was Biden’s favorability ratings … well Warnock hardly mentioned him when he ran for reelection. Maybe Harris shouldve taken that as a clue.

    Harris got 70K more GA votes that Biden in 2020 … that bucked a trend from the other states that went Biden in 2020

  7. Jim Jones & The Koolaid

    I know this is the THIRD post that I made here but there is one FINAL point I want to make:

    Other than Trump winning the Presidential election this really was NOT a good election for Republicans.

    They should have gained 7 Senate seats, instead only 3. Arizona’s Senate results is crazy, Gallego got 100K MORE votes than Harris. Nevada’s results are even crazier, 80K bullet ballots for the Presidential contest! (A bullet ballot is when the voter just votes for one contest (in this case Presidential) and does not vote in ANY of the other contests on the ballot).

    They should have gained seats in the House Of Rep, they lost seats (2 I think).

    They lost 2 seats in the Georgia House and failed to win GA Federal House seat 2.

    They lost their supermajority in the NC state house AND lost most the statewide races in NC.

    They lost 13 seats in the WI state house.

    Across the board they massively underperformed for a party who’s Prez candidate won the popular vote.

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